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EUR/USD Technical Analysis 06.25.2009 |
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EUR/USD: (1.3958) Above Triangle pattern, but near apexDaily Long Term Moving Average↑ (1.3908 today) managed to act as Support in recent downmove, with pair above Triangle pattern, but near apex. Support area at 1.3928 (today’s low?), with next levels at 1.3888 (yesterday low), ahead of 1.3858/ .3842 (broken daily Downtrendline off 1.4339/daily envelope bottom), where pause favored. If wrong, next levels at 1.3826/.3806 (current week low/ reaction low hourly): tough on 1st attempts. |
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FX And Dow Jones Recommended Levels 06.25.2009 |
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Several words about the EUR/USD Future.Resistance (daily close) : 1.3182, 1.3364, 1.3590 and 1.3778. After that 1.3958, 1.4186 and 1.4400. Break of the latter will give 1.4490, 1.4692 и 1.4884. Then 1.5117, 1.5386, 1.5592 и 1.5660. Break of 1.5660 would lead to 1.5865, 1.7280 и 1.9430(published on 23.10.2008). Support (daily close) : 1.2610, 1.2428 and 1.2246. Then 1.2128, 1.1970, 1.1838 and 1.1700. Break of the latter would give 1.1533, 1.1352 and 1.1181(published оn 23.10.2008). Dow Jones :Resistance(daily close) : 9382.12, 9744.26, 10 091.30, 10 935.23, 11 164.57, 344.92 and 11 520.30. Then 11 749.22, 11 970.00, 12 152.82, 12 600.24, 12 982.20, 13 162.50 and 13 320.00. |
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AUD/USD Overview 06.24.2009 |
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Price action on AUD/USD, a daily chart of which is shown, has made a third bounce up off a key uptrend support line extending from the March lows. This occurs within the context of a continuing sideways consolidation that is also plaguing several other dollar-based currency pairs. Currently, after the noted trendline bounce, price has reached a short-term downtrend resistance line extending from the failed re-test of the 0.8260 high on 6/11/2009. Any strong breakout above this short-term downtrend line should target yet another re-test of that high, which is the top of the current consolidation. Downside support within the context of the current prevailing uptrend resides around the 0.7800 price region. |
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London Session Update 06.25.2009 |
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The FOMC statement provided the lead for early London hours, disappointment over the absence of an extension of the asset buying plan pushed down stocks and supported the USD in a reversal of the trends initiated in Asian hours. USD strength, however, failed to extend below the EUR/USD 1.3930 level. AUD/USD also bounced after initial losses. Risk appetite had increased in Asian hours and regained a little traction as the London morning matured. The AUD had found support overnight on comments from PM Rudd that government efforts to stimulate the economy will lead to the creation of 210K jobs a year. The improved outlook was cemented by Treasury Secretary Henry that Australian economic growth would be ''somewhat stronger'' in FY08-09 then the latest forecasts (the gov't forecasts stagnant growth in FY to June 09). The better outlook for the Australian economy is pivotal for the prospects of the 'risk trade' going forward. |
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Higher US petrol Inventories Send WTI Down |
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Yesterday Brent added and WTI eased after U.S. inventories showed contradictory results. Crude stockpiles dropped by 3.8 mln.b in the week up to June 19 exceeding market forecasts of a 1 mln.b drop. However, at the beginning of summer holiday season petrol inventories increased by 3.9 mln.b as refinery utilisation climbed, and distillates stocks hitting 2.1 mln.b. U.S. oil demand should rebound when the economy recovers, but crude oil imports may not resume growth as rapidly as they did when past recessions ended, government forecasters said on Wednesday. New domestic petroleum supplies may minimize the need for more imports when the United States comes out of its economic downturn, the Energy Information Administration said. The recent sharp rebound in oil prices appears to have been driven by speculative bets and is unlikely to be maintained without a recovery in real demand, the chief IMF economist said on Wednesday. |
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