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Downward Pressure On Equity Futures Subsided |
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EUR/USD, DXY rip through the 20−day MA A confluence of technical and fundamental factors have contributed to Tuesday's decline in the US Dollar Index. Risk aversion began to ease the moment Asian equity markets closed, as downward pressure on equity futures subsided. News that a rating agency could potentially downgrade Uncle Sam's AAA rating if the U.S were to lose it's global reserve status, contributed to the first bout of dollar weakness. As a result, several leading indicators of risk appetite failed at key technical levels. Gold rebounded off a key fibonacci retracement (61.8% of the October low to the February high) and the USD/CAD rejected at the 50-day MA. |
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Spot Gold, Oil July Contract And USD/JPY Update 06.24.2009 |
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SPOT GOLDGold bounced right off the longer term 61.8% level of 912.88 to the 925 resistance and beyond but did not break 927.65 and so headed back to 922. A dip below 922 today should see support at 920.18 coming in to play. Buyers should be waiting there for their chance to jump back in but a break below here will see them running for the exit as sellers look to pressure for 915.75. If this support gives way then 912.90/85 would again be the targeted area. Here you are looking to cover all shorts. Look to resell a break of 912 for 909.85. A move above 927.65 has buyers growing in confidence and sees 929 on the way to 932.70. |
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US Dollar Was Sharply Weaker Across The Board |
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The USD was sharply weaker across the board yesterday after the previous push stronger. EURUSD rushed all the way back above 1.4000 resistance and on to the 1.4100+ level and AUDUSD rebounded sharply after a push down through the important 0.7850 area the previous day. This action keeps the market largely in the range once again that it has held for some two weeks now, as every push to one extreme of the range suddenly is met with a wall of resistance. This holding pattern may finally find resolution one way or another with the FOMC meeting and monetary policy statement later today. Bernanke's rhetoric will be poured over for signs of cracks in the low rates policy. So much noise has swirled on speculation of the Fed's thinking on rates and the subject of "exit strategies" that the Fed will almost have to address these specific issues rather explicitly today. |
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GBP/USD Outlook 06.24.2009 |
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Cable held up well and came sharply higher to 1.6475. Now if buyers can break above this resistance this morning look for the market to come higher with 1.6515 targeted. Here buyers are expected to cover shorts. Sellers may come in and test the water, but they will be loath to hold positions if this resistance breaks. You would find that buyers would then take this higher with 1.6565 the short term objective. Above here sees buyers come in again looking for the 1.6600/21 resistance. Support is at 1.6440. If buyers fail to hold above this support losses would be expected down to 1.6360/40. here sellers will cover. They will re-instate shorts below 1.6340 as a break below here sees the lows re-visited with 1.6210/1.6180 the targeted area. |
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* The greenback fell on Tuesday as economic data showed more signs of a global economic recovery. US existing home sales rose for a second month in May, but the gain was slightly less than expected. European purchasing manager indexes contracted the least since the beginning of the recession, but they were somewhat short of expectations. Most currency pairs are at significant technical levels. The next few days are likely to determine whether the dollar and yen will continue to gain on global recovery pessimism or whether increased optimism will benefit risk-taking and other key currencies. The S&P 500 index rose 2.06 points to 895.10. The euro advanced on comments by Bindesbank President Axel Weber that the time for stimulus is over and ECB rates will not be lowered. |
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